I'm Back- Live report from the 5th

First off I'd like to apologize to all my readers for my absence. I needed to take a break from blogging for a number of reasons but now I'm back.

Well, today is June 8. PRIMARY DAY in Virginia and many other places.
Here are my predictions, looks like it should be a good day for me everywhere but out in California (I am supporting bolded candidates in today's primaries):
VA-05
Hurt 40% 
McKelvey 20%
McPadden 13%
Ferrin 12%
Morton 9%
Boyd 3%
Verga 3%

First three are obvious in my opinion, Ferrin will do better than expected because he had billboards and was on the radio, Morton gets nine after the implosion, Verga gets three, and Boyd gets three doing well up north but terrible everywhere else.

VA-11
Fimian 54%
Herrity 46%

SC Governor
Haley 52%
Barrett 22%
McMaster 16%
Bauer 10%

Bauer's political career is over, hopefully he takes Mike Huckabee with him.

VA-08
Berry 56%
Murray 44%

CA Senate
Fiorina 51%
Campbell 30%
DeVore 19%


CA Governor
Whitman 58%
Poizner 42%


Nevada Senate
Angle 42%
Tarkanian 30%
Lowden 28%

I am registered in to vote in the 5th now because that is where I go to school. I drove from Roanoke to Farmville to vote today.
Signs on 460:

-McKelvey definitely had the most signs, lots of 4×8s and yard signs.
-Hurt close second, a ton of 4×8s and a few yard signs.
-McPadden lots of yard signs a few 4×4s
-Ferrin billboard
-one Feda 4×8
-one Verga yard sign

I was voter #57 at the Hampden precinct at the Hampden-Sydney College Fire Department. Low turnout but signs for all candidates outside.

UPDATE:

I didn't make at prediction in the VA-02 race because I don't believe I have followed that race closely enough to make one, but I do want to encourage anyone in the 2nd District to vote for Bert Mizusawa. He kind of jumped into the race late but has gained some momentum and will probably come in 2nd today, but if he wins that would be great. If he doesn't win we will without a doubt have a mediocre nominee running against Nye. If Regill wins I will definitely support him but we could have definitely recruited someone much better. So I am going to talk Bert up a bit last minute and hopefully get him some more votes. All info per his website.

"I believe that lower taxes give Virginians more money to use where we need it most, and they allow small businesses to create jobs. High taxes only stifle real economic growth, create big government, and kill jobs. Our nation’s debt is growing exponentially and is being fertilized by the Democrats’ dream of big government. We must reduce and eliminate our debt to improve the value of the dollar and attract business investment.”

“We have access to the cleanest and most affordable energy resources in the world. However, special interests have successfully created a bureaucracy that works at the expense of the taxpayer and against common sense. That red tape makes it time consuming and financially exhaustive to access and use these resources. I support the proven success of offshore drilling and nuclear power to bolster energy alternatives and independence, and I will support incentives to accelerate the development of wind, solar, nuclear, geothermal, and other energy sources. I firmly oppose a national cap and trade tax because of the increased costs families and businesses will be forced to pay.“

Bert Mizusawa is 100% pro-life and will vote that way in Congress. As a husband and father, Bert knows that we must protect the sanctity of human life.

Israel lives every day under the threat of terror and is our closest ally in the Middle East. It shares with America a commitment to democratic ideals, a respect for faith, and a commitment to peace in the region. Bert Mizusawa supports US policy to protect Israel and her citizens from terrorist attacks.

• #1 Graduate, West Point
• Army Airborne Ranger
• Harvard Law School
• Harvard MacArthur Fellow
• Financial Attorney
• Brigadier General, USAR
• Decorated Combat Veteran
• Silver Star recipient
• Small business president
• Senior defense official
• US Senate professional
• First in family to college
• Husband & Father

And I'd like to leave you all today with something I posted back in December. I was looking back at some older posts a while back and thought this would be something for us all to think about after the results are announced in the various primaries today. I had originally geared this specifically to VA-05 but can go for all of today's primaries- VA-02, VA-11, VA-08, SC Governor, California Governor and Senate,  Nevada Senate etc.

Just some good food for thought as we move on to the general election.


In this post on RedState Chuck DeVore's Communications Director Joshua Trevino puts to rest the conflict between their campaign and the National Republican Senatorial Committee. DeVore, a California Assemblyman, is seeking the Republican nomination and has been involved with what is a similar conflict to the conflict many of the GOP candidates for Congress in the 5th District seem to have with the National Republican Congressional Committee. The NRSC went out early and recruited Carly Fiorina, the former CEO of HP who is a VERY VERY moderate candidate (much more so than Robert Hurt mind you), and un-officially endorsed her candidacy for the US Senate from California over DeVore and has been accused of favoritism in various forms. Well the conflict has been put to rest and candidates in the 5th really need to consider what the DeVore campaign has decided to do here.

Trevino says in the post:

Mission-driven conservative warriors have a penchant for wanting to clean the Augean stables. But it turns out King Augeas has more than one stable. You, the activists who read and sustain this site, can and should focus your energies on the Augean stable that is our national-Party establishment. Here in California, we’ve got our own Augean stable to clean: the mess that Democratic governance and left-wing ideologues have created, bringing to ruin what by right ought to be the most prosperous spot on the planet. The impoverishment of California is the greatest act of policy-driven vandalism since the Fourth Crusade, and the human suffering that results is the sole moral burden of Democrats — of whom Barbara Boxer is the witless archetype.
That’s our fight. That’s Chuck DeVore’s fight. That’s the fight we at DeVore for California focus on every single day. And fighting that fight — not the fight with D.C. Republicans — is how we’ll win. We must earn the right to lead this fight in 2010, by beating Fiorina for the right to take on Boxer. You can help us do exactly that. What role the NRSC wishes to play in this is its choice. It may continue as it has, and that would be a pity, but also beyond our control.

While our state is in a much better situation than the state of California candidates for Congress in the 5th shouldn't focus their campaign and their message on supposed wrongs by the NRCC, Robert Hurt, and the 5th District GOP Committee. Like it or not, what has happened in the past happened. There will be a primary on June 8, 2010. Like it or not, it's happening. Let the activists and bloggers, the donors and grassroots work out the wrongs done by the NRCC and 5th District Committee. There will be an election for 5th District Chairman this spring and if you don't like the way Tucker Watkins has done things, then vote for someone else. The candidates need to stop attacking the NRCC and the 5th District Committee and focus on the issues important to the citizens of the 5th District.

Reality shows us that Rep. Tom Perriello had 21 town hall meetings with his constituents over the summer. In these town hall meetings the people voiced serious opposition to the health care reform bill which came before the House as well as general opposition to any serious government intervention into our health care system as well as any general cuts to Medicare. Despite his constituents expressing these views in his town hall meetings Perriello voted in favor of the health care reform bill which passed in the House of Representatives. Evidence shows us that "Cap and Trade" legislation will kill jobs in the 5th District which is an area that has already suffered greatly due to the economic crisis. Despite this evidence Perriello voted for the "Cap and Trade" bill. Evidence showed us that the economic stimulus plan would not help citizens of the 5th District and would only cause our nation to go into greater debt which the future citizens of the 5th District would have to pay off in exorbitant taxes. Despite this evidence Tom Perriello voted in line with Nancy Pelosi in favor of the economic stimulus package. This is the reality we are facing in the 5th District.

The candidates for the GOP nomination shouldn't worry about the intra-party fighting that is going on. Leave that to the party activists  and drop that from your message. Tell us what solutions you will bring to Washington that will put people back to work, empower the free market, cut spending, rid us of burdensome government intervention and regulation, and protect life and liberty. I hope Robert Hurt, Feda Morton, Michael McPadden, Ken Boyd, Laurence Verga, Ron Ferrin, Jim McKelvey, and all their staffs can take a lesson from Chuck DeVore.

UPDATED: Griffith makes it official

From the Roanoke Times:

State Del. Morgan Griffith’s campaign for Congress became official this morning when the Salem Republican filed as a candidate for the GOP nomination in the 9th Congressional District.

Griffith said he sent a letter and $500 filing fee this morning that will make him a candidate for the Republican nomination, which will be decided at a May 22 convention. Griffith already had formed a federal campaign committee and has been lining up support from party leaders in the sprawling district.

Update- Here's the statement from the Griffith campaign:

Griffith Statement on Filing of Candidacy
House Majority Leader files statement declaring intention to seek Republican Congressional nomination for Virginia's 9^th District
Richmond, Virginia, 26 February 2010:  House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) today issued the following statement regarding his filing of a statement with the 9^th District Republican Congressional Committee, indicating his intention to seek the Republican nomination for Congress:
"Earlier today, Michelle Jenkins, Chairman of the 9^th District Republican Committee, received a signed statement from me declaring that I will be a candidate for the Republican nomination for Congress from Virginia's 9^th District.  She also received from me the candidate filing fee, as required by the Convention Call issued by the Committee.
"The acceptance of this form and fee means that I am qualified to seek the Republican nomination for Congress at the 9^th District Republican Convention on May 22 at Fort Chiswell High School in Max Meadows.
"The General Assembly is scheduled to be in session for another two weeks, so my duties as Majority Leader will delay a formal public announcement of my candidacy until after we have adjourned for the year."
House Majority Leader H. Morgan Griffith (R-Salem) represents the Eighth District in the Virginia House of Delegates.  The Eighth District is comprised of the City of Salem and portions of Roanoke County.

Cross-posted @ VA Social Conservative 

The Health Care Summit: Paul Ryan and the GOP steal the stage from Obama

For those who thought today's Health Care Summit at the Blair House would be Obama, Reid, and Pelosi's show you were proven wrong. Today belonged to the GOP proving that we are not the party of "no" but a party with solutions. Specifically Rep. Paul Ryan of Wisconsin took the day in what could be remembered as the day he really and truly became on of the GOP's brightest young stars.

From Erick Erickson at Red State:

Many Republicans thought that after the President overshadowed the GOP at their Baltimore retreat last month, going to Blair House yesterday would just be another PR disaster.
It was anything but.
The GOP won the day so convincingly that even the traditional media had to praise the party for talking issues.

For those who didn't see this portion, which came in the afternoon session, Ryan launched a full on assult on the bill more or less talking about how the bill will greatly increase the deficit which is something the Dems have lied about time and time again. Additionally he hits on the fact that medicare is broke, how this bill will hurt seniors as well as future generations, and quoting a budget chairman who said this bill was a "ponzi scheme that would make Bernie Madoff proud".



In regards to what Ryan had to say there the Weekly Standard had this to say:

Obama didn't even bother questioning Ryan's presentation. He changed the subject to Medicare Advantage. The expression on the president's face as Ryan made his case was absolutely priceless. Simply put, he looked like someone who realizes he's met his match.

Here's Ryan from earlier in the day where he talks about the essential difference in philosophy between the Dems and Republicans as they go about trying to achieve health care reform. 





John McCain also had a great day today really getting into it with Obama. McCain wanted to address issues in regards to the process and what went wrong there but Obama wasn't having it telling him "the election is over".


A.B. Stoddard from The Hill sums up the GOP's preformance pretty well:

“I think we need to start out by acknowledging Republicans brought their ‘A Team.’ They had doctors knowledgeable about the system, they brought substance to the table, and they, I thought, expressed interest in the reform.  I thought in the lecture from Senator John McCain and on the issue of transparency, I thought today the Democrats were pretty much on their knees.”

All in all it was a great day exposure wise for Republicans. Was a lot accomplished? No, not at all. But we have to ask ourselves: Would the GOP have been able to put forth their proposals and let the American people hear them if we hadn't done this? No not at all. If this had been done on the House or Senate floor or in some closed door meeting on Capitol Hill the GOP would not have recived much media coverage at all. It also proved to the American people the the GOP is not just the party of "NO". Sometimes it is good to say no, especially at times like these we need to be saying no on things like spending etc., but in order to regain the trust of the American people we needed to show them our solutions which is what we did today. Today was a step abet a small one, but a step none this less and that is what we needed.

Cross-posted @  VA Social Conservative
Cross-posted @ RedState

More News in the 9th

From Larry Sabato's Center for Politics:

VA-9 (Rick Boucher-D)
Rating Change: Safe D to Likely D
When an incumbent member of Congress who has represented the same district for 28 years draws a challenger who does not even live in the district should he be worried? If the incumbent is Virginia Democrat Rick Boucher then yes. Boucher’s district is coal country, comprised of the entire southwestern tip of Virginia and bordered by West Virginia, Kentucky, Tennessee, and North Carolina. While Boucher voted against the health care bill, his vote for cap-and-trade is already causing him headaches. Adding to his pains, Virginia’s state House Majority Leader, Morgan Griffith, has all but announced he will challenge Boucher. Griffith is a top tier candidate and has been recruited by the NRCC, but he lives in the 6th District instead of the 9th. This could complicate his bid against the entrenched Boucher, although Griffith’s supporters point out that his home is only “feet” from the district’s border and redistricting may render the point moot after this year’s election. While Griffith’s bid would be legal, since congressmen in Virginia only have to live in the state and not in the district they represent, politics is perception and a Republican argument that Boucher is out of touch with his district could be weakened by a messenger who does not even live there. Still, Boucher will be in for one of the tougher fights of his decades-long career as Republicans put another entrenched Democrat on their target list. (emphasis mine)

It's not going to be easy to take down Boucher, but based on the developments of the last few days it looks like the GOP is ready to put up one hell of a fight. Should be fun.





Cross-posted @ RedState

Bill Stanley's Plan for the 5th District

So as many of you may have heard the race for Chairman of the 5th District Republican Committee is shaping up. The announced candidates thus far are Bill Stanley, Chairman of the Franklin County Republican Committee and Christian Schoenewald, Chairman of the Albemarle County Republican Committee. I threw my support behind Stanley earlier in the year when he announced:

Many of you know Bill Stanley from his unsuccessful bid for RPV Chair last May as well as his work as Chairman of the Franklin County GOP Committee.  As a local unit chair Bill has without a doubt distinguished himself and his committee as one of the best in the state and was named "Unit Chair of the Year" for the 5th District two years running. In Franklin Country, under the leadership of Bill Stanley, the GOP Committee has seen their fundraising and membership increase greatly. I worked on Bill's campaign for RPV Chairman and I can think of no better person to lead the 5th District GOP or RPV for that matter. Youth is something the RPV and GOP as a whole needs desperately. Like Greg, Bill will bring much needed youth to the leadership of the 5th District Committee. Additionally, there is much tension between Republicans in the 5th District at the moment as you may well be very familiar with via the massive amount of news media and blog coverage. The Republicans in the 5th District need an experienced leader with enthusiasm as well as new and innovative ideas who can bring the party back together to work for our common goals. That experienced leader is Bill Stanley.

Here is Bill's plan for victory in the 5th District:

- The 5th District should serve and answer to the Party’s activist and volunteer base.
- The 5th should provide the grassroots organizational structure for each local unit in the 5th necessary to help elect its nominees at every level of government.
- The 5th District should never be conformed to the image of any single candidate, campaign, or elected public official. Candidates, campaigns, and elected public officials come and go, but the Party has a responsibility to endure, reflecting the values and principles of its activist and volunteer base.
- The 5th District should ensure that nomination contests are fair, open and properly conducted, and it should never take sides in party nomination contests (even when incumbents are challenged for the nomination).
- The 5th District should reflect the values and principles of its conservative base, and should never shrink from, apologize for, discount, or diminish their positions on any given issue.
- The 5th District should focus its efforts on training our activists and volunteers at the Unit level, building the structure at every level that will both foster and elect conservative candidates.
- The 5th District should provide an effective, modern (including internet and social networking) structure of communications with the both the activist base and the public.

Raise Money

If elected, I would immediately set in motion significant fund-raising efforts in order to raise at least $250,000.00, to be used by the committee in its efforts to defeat Tom Perriello in 2010, and to strengthen the local units.


Meetings

Because this year is so critical in returning the congressional seat in the 5th District back to conservative hands, the 5th District committee must agree to meet on a more regular basis than in years past. This committee must be dedicated to the process of victory, and this process will take the best and most dedicated efforts and strengths of all of its unit chairmen and members in order to be achieved. I believe that this requires regular planning sessions, strategy meetings, and a regular and consistent interaction between the units.


Establish a Plan for Victory

Make no mistake, Tom Perriello is no pushover, and his funding and campaign organizational skills caught us off-guard in 2008. I personally met more people from Connecticut and New York at local polling places in my county during the last congressional election than I ever care to meet again. We must expect the same tactics, and we must be prepared. In order to win, we must out-prepare, out-organize, out-work the democrats, and execute a cohesive political strategy to beat our opponent. We are Virginians, we don’t need help from outsiders to determine the future of our region. To quote a famous line in the movie “Rudy”: No one, and I MEAN NO ONE, comes into our backyard and pushes us around. We will not allow this to occur in 2010. Therefore, we must establish a specific plan for victory that utilizes all of our best resources and organizational skills in a manner never before seen in 5th District politics. And, we need to do this now.

Education of the Grassroots Volunteers/Local Candidates

The 5th District Committee owes to each of its units a fundamental obligation to train the membership, future local candidates and grassroots volunteers in order to achieve success at the local ballot box. As chairman, I will ensure that the 5th District establishes an educational and training program for both local candidates and grassroots activists. We must raise a well-trained army of Republican volunteers that not only utilizes each individual’s talents to be used throughout the District, but also we must prepare and equip them with the skills necessary to defeat Tom Perriello at each polling place. If elected, I promise that each unit will have all the necessary resources needed to win. There must not be a polling place within the 5th District that goes unmanned, there will not be a door that has not been knocked on, nor a call not made; we will not fail because of a lack of effort in 2010.

Assist Local Units in Fundraising Efforts

If elected, I will implement programs of joint partnership with the local units to raise funds for the operations of each unit. A well-funded local committee, is a successful committee that fosters the growth of local conservative candidates. The candidate that each unit develops and supports is a potential conservative that will lead us in the future on the state level. We must support the autonomous growth of our party’s future leaders within each unit.



Public Relations/New Media

For too long, our units within the 5th have acted independently, and without a cohesive message. We must be able to come together, as one unit, with one voice, and with the singular goal to defeat the well-funded incumbent Tom Perriello. If elected, I will implement a Public Relations strategy that gets our conservative message out to the constituents and to the media on a constant basis. This will involve a focused effort on traditional media outlets, as well as a complete utilization of new media. We must establish a new method of having each committee in the 5th communicate on a real time basis with other units, in order to create a cohesive and seamless political operation.

Strengthen College Republicans

We have a great resource of colleges throughout the 5th District that must be tapped into. Not only are these members the future of our party, they are an excellent volunteer resource. The Committee needs to foster and grow its relationship to these clubs at every college within the 5th, and we must integrate them fully into 5th District political operations.


New Member Outreach

The 5th District must energetically enact programs and establish objectives to double the membership of each unit in 2010. We need to reach out to the disaffected, the disenfranchised, the youth, ethnic groups, conservative organizations, and the young professionals. The Republican Party is a big tent, and we must continuously strive to bring new and energized activists into our local ranks.

Voter Registration

It is our obligation to register new voters during each election cycle. Last year, I along with other Republican leaders in the 5th and RPV, established a target-specific voter registration drive of those unregistered voters in our District that held hunting, fishing and concealed-carry permits. This is an unregistered group of in excess of 15,000 citizens in our District alone. Although the registration effort was started with little time before the 2009 election, we were able to register a significant number of new voters within our district; the second amendment is an important issue in light of the democrats’ recent efforts to limit our right to bear arms. If elected, I will continue this voter registration drive in the 5th District, and will pledge to have our committee lead the effort in registering 10,000 new conservative voters before the 2010 election.


Create a Level Playing Field in all Elections

It is the responsibility of the 5th district to guarantee a level playing field for all Republican candidates who run in contested primaries. I pledge to you that all candidates who have the courage to run for public office, in both the upcoming congressional election and future elections on the local and state level, will be afforded an equal opportunity to reach voters in the units within the District; that they will be treated with respect, and that we will guarantee that they will have their message heard by all of the members of our community. This is critical for us to provide every voter with a full and complete opportunity to decide for themselves, free from the influence and without the interference of the party apparatus, just who is the best candidate to represent the Republican Party in each and every election, whether it be local, state or national.